We expect 
Carnival 
      to report continued erosion in demand for its cruise vacations when 
      it releases first-quarter results on Friday. General economic conditions 
      have worsened in the last quarter, putting pressure on discretionary 
      consumer spending. The demand decrease should be evident in the 
      company's occupancy rate, ticket pricing, and onboard spending. 
      Carnival's expansion effort, which will rapidly increase its capacity 
      over the next five years, will hurt profitability in the short run, but 
      we believe it should improve profitability once the ships are able to 
      run at full capacity. Carnival's position as the largest cruise line and 
      its relatively healthy balance sheet should allow it to weather the 
      short-term troubles and return to economic profitability in the coming 
      recovery.